Methodology & evidence policy

Phase 1 · Country Structural Change Intelligence

Core principle: Signavaris adds analysis to governed evidence; it does not invent raw observations and it does not turn model output into stronger claims than validation supports.

Evidence sources

Phase 1 demographic intelligence uses governed United Nations World Population Prospects evidence. Structural economic inputs use governed World Bank World Development Indicators. Customer-facing intelligence retains source provenance and distinguishes historical estimates from projection scenarios.

What the signal measures

The demographic labour-pressure signal combines working-age population trajectory and old-age dependency pressure within the current ten-country Phase 1 peer universe. Migration is presented as context rather than assigned causal credit.

Decision horizons

Current customer horizons are 2030, 2040 and 2050. Future demographic values are scenario-conditioned projections, not observed facts.

Structural-model routing

Signavaris applies a frozen support guardrail before presenting structural-economic interpretation. Cases outside that validated support boundary are routed to demographic-only intelligence. The routing status is not a forecast probability or universal guarantee of model accuracy.

Historical analogues

Historical analogues identify similar demographic trajectories in the governed historical pool. Similarity is context, not a prediction that the same economic outcome will recur.

Claims Signavaris does not make

Phase 1 does not claim causal economic forecasting; evidence-quality labels are not probabilities; historical analogues are not deterministic forecasts; and the current support rule is not claimed to be universally valid.

Coverage

United Kingdom, United States, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Japan, South Korea, Canada and China.

This policy will be versioned as Signavaris expands its evidence base and validation.